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At World Gas Conference (WGC) held last month, Wood Mackenzie launched its new China Gas & Power Service. Head of Asia Pacific Gas Research and WGC presenter, Mr Gavin Thompson, said that although the industry has been focused on China's shale gas developments, this is a long-term story and while substantial, will not satisfy China's demand. Instead the focus will also need to be on China's import options to meet rapidly increasing demand which is expected to quadruple by 2030. This presents opportunities for pipe suppliers in Central Asia and Russia in addition to liquefied natural gas (LNG) suppliers, including, potentially from North America. Meanwhile, Coal-to-gas (CTG) will play the dominant role in near-term domestic supply.

Mr Thompson says, "We remain positive that China's domestic shale gas will be a major boost to supply growth, producing approximately 150 billion cubic metres (bcm) per annum by 2030, largely accounted for by the Sichuan and Tarim basin production. However, shale gas growth will only accelerate after 2020, staying under 30 bcm before then. Meanwhile, China's gas demand will increase from just over 150 bcm to more than 600 bcm from now to 2030. China will make up almost 30% of global incremental gas demand growth within the timeframe."

"Indeed, while the industry is increasingly focused on domestic shale, we believe that both Coal-to-Gas projects and coalbed methane (CBM) will each deliver more output into the Chinese gas market than shale right up to 2024. By 2020, we see CTG and CBM producing 27 bcm and 17 bcm respectively against only approximately 11 bcm of shale production. These sectors are therefore far more significant through the medium-term but are not receiving the appropriate level of attention outside of China."

Although the Chinese government has ambitious shale gas targets for 2020, Wood Mackenzie believes production will be delayed due to a range of challenges. The key challenges are: a need for deeper geological understanding of China's shale potential and know-how to exploit this; uncertainty of the NOC dominated landscape for efficient allocation of capital where a dramatic increase in capital spend is required; lack of supply chain services and infrastructure; complicated issues around land access; and environmental plus regulation challenges.

Wood Mackenzie says that China will therefore require new imported LNG and pipe supply in addition to growth in domestic conventional and unconventional gas supply. Mr Thompson says, "Even with unconventional gas growth, China will still require over 130 bcm of uncontracted imports by 2030. While Chinese buyers remain sensitive to price, strong demand; seasonality; limited shale supply into coastal markets before 2025; and the government's push towards price reform will drive new contracting over the next few years."

"This creates opportunities for suppliers looking for a Pacific Market such as Turkmenistan, Russia and LNG. However, each of these supply options have specific challenges that stand in their way of securing market."

Turkmenistan is a critical option for China, with deliveries expected to increase from 25 bcm to 40 bcm between 2012 to 2015. Completion of WE3 will also take total pipeline capacity for Central Asian gas to 60 bcm from 2015. Still, South lolotan development presents major challenges and Turkmengaz's ability to integrate and commission the field and facilities will concern China. Russia is another vital supply option and the importance of a deal is rising for both China and Russia, despite unsuccessful negotiations so far. Russia's supply growth into Europe is being stymied by slow demand growth, encouraging Gazprom to seek new markets as competition into Europe increases, and the pricing outlook remains weaker than those in many key Pacific markets.

In the mid-term, China's LNG position is stronger than regional buyers like Japan and India, with LNG demand reaching only 18 bcm by 2017. However long-term LNG demand will accelerate, requiring an additional 33 bcm by 2020 and 50 bcm by 2030. As a result, Chinese buyers are likely to show interest in multiple LNG projects.

Summarising, Mr Thompson says, "Significant remaining challenges in China's shale developments imply that substantial supply will likely materialise later than targeted. Increasing gas demand calls for China to prioritise additional supply options. And even when substantial shale gas is developed, total unconventional gas contribution will still leave China with uncontracted requirements. Suppliers in Turkmenistan and Russia in addition to LNG suppliers are well placed to capitalise on this."